The S&P 500 has cleared a multi-month range with improving breadth. This thread walks through a framework — not a signal — for evaluating breakout quality.
**Key points** - Confirm participation: advance/decline line and equal-weight vs cap-weight alignment. - Volatility regime: compressing realized vol often precedes trend continuation, not guaranteed reversals. - Macro overlay: front-end rates and USD direction still dominate cross-asset risk appetite.
Charts reference the cash index for context only. See `/legal/risk` for leveraged product disclosures.