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Intermediate

Regime Filters: Volatility and Trend States

When to stand down — a research framing, not a signal.

4 Lessons8m total

Regime filters classify markets (trending vs mean-reverting, high vs low vol) to decide which playbook applies. Misclassification costs compound when you apply trend rules in chop.

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Course Overview

When to stand down — a research framing, not a signal.

What You'll Learn

Core concepts explained with market context
Practical examples tied to real instruments
Risk-aware framing — educational only
Next-step links across the VegaDeck curriculum

Regime filters classify markets (trending vs mean-reverting, high vs low vol) to decide which playbook applies. Misclassification costs compound when you apply trend rules in chop.

Common inputs include realised volatility percentiles, moving-average slopes, and cross-asset risk gauges. Combine filters with economic calendar awareness.

Document look-ahead bias if indicators use future data in research code. Live trading requires point-in-time discipline.

Educational only · not investment advice · Risk disclosures

Curriculum

4 Lessons · 32m
1Backtests and Overfitting TrapsIn-sample glory, out-of-sample humility—why perfect curves lie.8m
2Macro Scenario PlanningBase, bull, and bear paths without false precision.8m
3Regime Filters: Volatility and Trend StatesWhen to stand down — a research framing, not a signal.8mContinue Learning
4Strategy Hypothesis Checklist (Before You Backtest)Define the edge, failure modes, and data requirements—without selling signals.8m

Course Resources

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Educational only · not investment advice · Risk disclosures

Regime Filters: Volatility and Trend States — VegaDeck