Macro Scenario Planning

Base, bull, and bear paths without false precision.

4 Lessons8m total

Scenarios bundle drivers: growth, inflation, policy, and risk appetite. Assign qualitative probabilities, not fake decimal odds.

Course Overview

Base, bull, and bear paths without false precision.

✓Core concepts explained with market context

✓Practical examples tied to real instruments

✓Risk-aware framing — educational only

✓Next-step links across the VegaDeck curriculum

Scenarios bundle drivers: growth, inflation, policy, and risk appetite. Assign qualitative probabilities, not fake decimal odds.

For each scenario, list what would confirm or falsify it in data over the next quarter.

Scenarios inform risk budgets; they are not trade instructions.

Educational only · not investment advice · Risk disclosures

4 Lessons · 32m

1Backtests and Overfitting TrapsIn-sample glory, out-of-sample humility—why perfect curves lie.8m▢

2Macro Scenario PlanningBase, bull, and bear paths without false precision.8mContinue Learning

3Regime Filters: Volatility and Trend StatesWhen to stand down — a research framing, not a signal.8m▢

4Strategy Hypothesis Checklist (Before You Backtest)Define the edge, failure modes, and data requirements—without selling signals.8m▢

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Educational only · not investment advice · Risk disclosures